In a move with significant geopolitical and environmental implications, China has officially launched construction on a colossal $167.8 billion hydropower project on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, near the India-China border. Chinese Premier Li Qiang marked the beginning of the project with a groundbreaking ceremony held in Nyingchi City on July 19, according to India Today. The Brahmaputra, known in Tibet as the Yarlung Zangbo, flows through a region of immense strategic and ecological importance. The site chosen for this project lies in the Great Bend area of the river—where it takes a dramatic U-turn near Arunachal Pradesh before flowing into India and eventually into Bangladesh. The project's proximity to the Indian border and its location in a seismically active zone have triggered serious concerns in New Delhi and Dhaka. Sanctioned in December 2024, this hydropower initiative is being dubbed the world’s largest. It is set to feature five cascade power stations and will demand an estimated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, or roughly $167.8 billion. Once operational, it aims to generate a staggering 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually—enough to supply power to over 300 million people. China first proposed the project in 2020 as part of its national five-year plan to harness the hydropower potential of the Tibetan Plateau. The plan gained official approval in late 2024, with the current administration fast-tracking its implementation. Premier Li has described the development as a "project of the century," urging the use of cutting-edge technologies and a focus on ecological conservation to minimize environmental impact. However, downstream nations—especially India and Bangladesh—have voiced concerns over the potential consequences. India, which shares a long and disputed border with China in Arunachal Pradesh, has repeatedly stressed that any upstream activity must not adversely affect the interests of lower riparian states. The Indian government has pointed to risks such as environmental degradation, displacement of communities, and even the strategic threat of water weaponization, should China control the river’s flow. Echoing these fears, Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu in June described the mega-dam as a “ticking water bomb.” He warned that the project may pose an even greater threat than traditional military challenges, citing China’s untrustworthiness and the potential for the dam to be used as a geopolitical weapon. Beijing, in response, has maintained that the dam will have no “negative impact” downstream. It has reiterated its commitment to data-sharing and cooperation under the bilateral Expert Level Mechanism established in 2006. This mechanism allows for seasonal hydrological data exchange between China and India, particularly concerning the Brahmaputra and Sutlej rivers. High-level border talks held in December last year between Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also touched on the importance of timely data-sharing and transparent dialogue. As tensions simmer, India is not sitting idle. It is ramping up its own hydropower projects in Arunachal Pradesh, positioning them as part of a broader regional infrastructure push. These parallel developments reflect the increasing urgency felt by Indian policymakers to secure water resources and safeguard strategic interests along the volatile Himalayan frontier. The unfolding situation underscores the delicate balance of power in South Asia's river diplomacy. As China pushes forward with its monumental vision on the Yarlung Zangbo, the implications for India, Bangladesh, and the broader ecological landscape are far-reaching—and likely to shape regional geopolitics for years to come.
